April 27th Review

My picks from yesterday were 3 of 5, for a 34% gain. (11.3% compounded)

Picks that were triggered:

NVAX - "Flu stocks = huge runners tomorrow and then will most likely have a nice sell off late." - This stock was really moving pre-market, but the big chance to gain was on the slow trail off this afternoon. Gain of around 16%.

BCRX - "Flu stocks = huge runners tomorrow and then will most likely have a nice sell off late." - Nice open and then run...gain of around 11% there.

RUTH - "The company announced their earnings results will be out on the 5th...buy the rumor, sell the news...like usual." - Gain of 7% today by following that rule.

Picks that were not triggered:

DDRX - "Just still waiting for that green to red action." - Well, no move today. Let's just be patient...it'll come eventually.

COLM - "Not much of a summer line, I'll be picking up shares in the heart of the summer for another winter round up next year." If the stock breaks $31 here, don't load up, but if not, do load.

So for the most part, today was quite skitterish for the major indices. Everyone has this swine flu "pandemic" thing constantly running through their head, so it's somewhat hard to go buying a whole bunch. The whole situation, however, is way overblown, of course. There is just no way in the modern world that we live in today that a whole pandemic breaks out. Eventually the panic will die down and a lot of bio-tech names will be smashed. 

So on that note, let's get to some of those names that will eventually be hammered. Here they are:

Swine Flu related names - NVAX, BCRX, APT, PURE, SVA, NGEN, HEB, GNBT, LWLLE - What I would do with most of these names is just build a small portfolio in which all of them are weighted somewhat equally. I would short every single one and then just wait around for about 1-2 months and then close everything and see what kind of return you get. Most likely it will be pretty good. Here's my small example portfolio:

BCRX - 25% / NVAX - 15% / APT - 12% / PURE - 10% / SVA - 13% / NGEN - 5% / HEB - 5% / GNBT - 5% / LWLLE - 10%

We'll track how this does for the next few weeks to months. If the flu gets really bad quickly soon, then this portfolio will obviously take a loss, but the important thing is how it will act over the long-term and not in the next week or so.

BAGL - This stock has underwent a really nice move lately on some increased volume. It's one of those restaurant stocks that have been roaring higher of late. Over time, I think it will come back...put options might be interesting to check out here. (Edit: No options on this stock.)

CMRG - Surprisingly, this stock has been rallying a ton lately, but it just hasn't been getting the attention others have been with all of the flu stock quadrupling overnight. I think we see a comeback here soon, wait for that green to red move.

Alright, there's some ideas for tonite...now's a great time to be a trader.

MK