Tuesday, June 30, 2009

June 30th Review

The picks from yesterday were 4 of 5, for a 13% gain. (3.3% compounded)

Picks that were triggered:

TRW - "This stock is starting to look interesting when it breaks the $12 mark soon. If not, it's just a triple top." - Nice move over $12 today, but it did pull back. Let's watch and see what happens tomorrow.
RAD - "I'm a buyer over the 20-day MA and the 1.50 combination breakout here." - Nice chance to buy today...I think we go higher tomorrow.
FUQI - "Easy breakout buy over the $20 mark tomorrow." - Nice mid-day move to the $22 mark...I think it will move higher over time. Gain of around 8% on the trade.
DCGN - "This is an example of a hype spike...it'll cool down soon." - Gain of around 5% so far. A lot more to come, I think.

Picks that were not triggered:

XIDE - "I'm liking this stock over the $4 mark after it has really been sold off lately." - Well, it had a nice day of buying today, but it was just a tough open to overcome. The stock really gapped down and isolated the move.

As I figured yesterday, today would be a day for selling in the major markets. Traders did just that, selling the market off just the amount it went up yesterday. We had a bearish engulfing on the daily Dow chart today, so that could spell bad things for tomorrow. I think we will tend to stay in this 500 point range for at least all of July. Trading volume just really dries up during the summer, and I think that causes a lack of movement over the next month to months. Here's some specific picks to watch:

VOCL - Nice double and then some for this small-cap, low-volume spiker. There might be a bit of news in this move, but this lately has just become too much. I'm waiting to short on this first sign of negativity.

CNXT - Here's a semiconductor name that is looking like it is close to a huge breakout. The 1.50 mark is what I am watching for...it did break its 200-day MA today, so that could also give it a boost ahead from here.

CWTR - This here is a speciality retailer that appears to be rebreaking out over the $6 mark after a touch and consolidation. If it goes, be ready to buy...but also be ready to wait a long while just to get a buck move out of this stock.

SPNG - After a solid week of selling, this stock is back in the buyers' minds. I'd risk a bottom pick here for a quick 10% move or so early tomorrow...we'll see.

MK

Monday, June 29, 2009

June 29th Review

The picks from yesterday were 3 of 5, for a 40% gain. (13.3% compounded)

Picks that were triggered:

CHBT - "This is nothing but a huge Friday move that you should be ready to short. Some will gap-down and be worthless...others will be great shorts. Be ready for both kinds." - We did get a gap-down from this name, but there was still a big short trade. Good for around 7%.
SMIT - "This is nothing but a huge Friday move that you should be ready to short. Some will gap-down and be worthless...others will be great shorts. Be ready for both kinds." - Nice morning panic...could have gone for around 6% on a decent trade.
CXM - "This is nothing but a huge Friday move that you should be ready to short. Some will gap-down and be worthless...others will be great shorts. Be ready for both kinds." - Here's what I was talking about...faulty open, huge gain of almost 27% on a nice short trade.

Picks that were not triggered:

ZN - "This is nothing but a huge Friday move that you should be ready to short. Some will gap-down and be worthless...others will be great shorts. Be ready for both kinds." - Gap-down, not much of a trade here.
YAVY - "This is nothing but a huge Friday move that you should be ready to short. Some will gap-down and be worthless...others will be great shorts. Be ready for both kinds." - Gap-down with not much volatility to boot. Not really a trade there.

On a day when Mr. Madoff recieved 150 years in prison for his massive Ponzi scheme, the overall market rallied strongly. Quite truthfully, this was just the market playing games with the public in my opinion. They know that when the nightly news comes on tonite, everyone will first see that this criminal was put off to jail for life, then the newscaster will next say that the market rose nicely today following the news. People will connect these and think the market condones this kind of conduct. In reality, the market is just trying to make money anyway possible. It's a nice spin, but we will have to see what happens tomorrow to really get a feel for the market.

Okay, let's get to some specifc picks for tomorrow now...here's what I got:

XIDE - This stock has ultimately gone from almost $7 a share to $3 in amost three trading weeks. I'm not exactly sure what has cause this constant sell-off...maybe a forced liquidation? Either way, I'm a buyer over the $4 line for a slow move higher.

TRW - Not exactly an easy small-cap play here, but I would definitely be a buyer of this stock over the $12 mark. If it can't break here, it's going to be a triple top. If it does break, I've got a price target of at least $14, but easily $16 depending on demand.

RAD - This company was really on the move about 2-3 months ago, but it has since cooled off. Some news was released today about debt refinancing. That is good news, so I'd watch for a combination break of the 20-day MA and 1.50 mark tomorrow for a nice continued move higher from here.

FUQI - Here's a continuation breakout buy over the $20 mark tomorrow possibly. I want to see good volume, otherwise it could just be a spoiled move. Today's volume was really, really nice...another day like that, and this thing is off to $25.

DCGN - The discovery that they reported today was cool, but it just needs more testing before you can tell if it is a legitimate discovery. This is an example of selling the news right now...it should be worth at least 10% or so...we'll see.

MK

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Weekend Update

The picks from last week were 13 of 18, for an overall gain of 183%. (14.08% compounded)

Well, the major indices were suffering again this week after a tough Monday. They slowly tried to bounce on Thursday, but the move was batted on Friday with no positive move at all. Volume on the major averages was normal, so there is really nothing to take from that. The spike on Thursday did give us a bounce back to the 50 mark on the RSI indicator, but the move back downward denied that move above. That 50 line has now become resistance with the break of the support on the Monday tank. No need for a chart, just watch for that stuff.

ZN, CHBT, SMIT, CXM, & YAVY - Now the huge moves in all of these names weren't because of options expiration, these are just Friday moves. Some of these will probably gap down, but of the ones that don't, be ready to short them. Faulty opens are great short opportunities.

I know it was a short post tonite, but it's summer! I want to get outside and enjoy it while I can. I'll save the longer posts for the snowy winters. Here's a song for the road to remember MJ:



MK

Thursday, June 25, 2009

June 25th Review

The picks from yesterday were 2 of 4, for a 12% gain. (6% compounded)

Picks that were triggered:

MTMC - "This PR about a $40+M contract from the Navy is a little ridiculous. I want to short this sucker now." - Well, no such chance to short from the open...this thing really gapped down. There was an opportunity mid-day for a quick 5%.
QELP - "I'm seeing resistance in the 1.50 area here...ready to short." - Nice 7% gain on an early morning short trade.

Picks that were not triggered:

AHD - "This is the same type of play as QELP, but I think it has just begun to rise." - Well, I pulled the trigger on this name a bit too early as it continued to follow the other small oil names in trading today. Maybe tomorrow?
MBWM - "Regional bank that has broken that last little bit of support...should be a nice short down from here." - Wow, that's what I call a bounce. Someone wanted to save this sucker from going down the tubes. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

The Dow was really on the move higher today...the 200-day and 50-day MA's are really starting to converge on the chart. That usually means a big move in one direction. My guess is that is that it will be down from here, but we will just have to see. I'll have the Weekend Update up sometime this weekend with a new song...finally. Until then, here's a pick:

IFON - Wow, I mentioned this stock as a $1 breakout name not too long ago, and to pick up shares when it came back to $1ish. It did just that, so hopefully you all picked up shares. This one is now at 1.60, a nice 60% gain. It's getting a little steep for my taste, so I'd look to take some off the table and possibly flip to a short sell if it doesn't continue higher.

MK

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

June 24th Review

The picks from yesterday were 3 of 4, for a 28% gain. (9.3% compounded)

Picks that were triggered:

RJET - "With all that this company is buying right now, I think that they could become a "big" airline soon...I'm a buyer here." - Nice gain of almost 11% today after the huge spike yesteraday.
OC - "This is big name company that has been oversold of late...buyers should come in soon. I'm expecting a move to the 12.50 area." - Nice close right at 12.50 today...gain of 6%.
LZB - "Mr. Sykes is on to this one...just wait for all of the sheep to file out and then short this sucker." - Easy gain of 11% here.

Picks that were not triggered:

CVGI - "I want to see this stock break the 200-day MA and $2 resistance in one fell swoop soon." - Nothing today...this could take time to develop.

Okay, it's really late again, so I'm heading right to some stocks to watch for tomorrow. I'll be up with the rest of this post sometime tomorrow. Here's what I got:

MTMC - This stock had some big news today about a possible $40+M contract from the NAvy about securing "cyberspace." It seems to me that the U.S. Navy would spend more than $40M on something of this important...this could be a sketchy PR. I'm looking to short tomorrow.

QELP - Small oil/gas name that is back on the spike higher. This has moved from $1 to $1.50 in a very short time. I'm seeing some resistance in the 1.50 area, so watch for a possible short trade developing here early tomorrow morning.

AHD - Same type of play as QELP, but I think this one has more room to run. With oil on the rise back, some of these small names should start to run in packs. Watch 'em.

MBWM - Yeah, here's a regional bank that's on the move down again. It just broke the last bit of support and is hitting new lows. Short and hold this sucker here.

MK

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

June 23rd Review

The picks from yesterday were 3 of 4, for a 16% gain. (5.3% compounded)

Picks that were triggered:

ONTY - "This stock got stuck at its 50-day MA at the end of the day today...watching for some selling today." - Gain of 8% on the trade so far.
NAVI - "Nice bounce off of the 50 mark on RSI and buyback to come soon." - Nice bounce today, good for around 4% or so on the trade today.
GPRE - "A move under 4.50 should take this stock slowly down to around the 3.50 area." - Nice quick trade open this morning for around 4%...the stock did bounce back at the end of the day...watch for another short trade again tomorrow.

Picks that were not triggered:

EFUT - "Bounce time yet for this halver? I sure hope it will bounce right off of its 200-day MA." - No such bounce yet...tomorrow is the day.

Well, the Dow was struggling yet again to get moving in a positive direction. Now that the 50-day MA has been broken, it is going to be hard to bounce back above it. We saw today that it tested a rebreak, but nothing could materialize. I think sellers are in here now taking their gains from this past 40% move on the major indices. I'm expecting a nice slow move downward to at least 8,000ish mark in the near-term. Baidu was crushed again today, so that just goes to show that the "fun" names are going to get hit the hardest soon.

Okay, let's move on because the College World Series is on, and I am on my way to the Transformers premiere tonite...here's what I got:

RJET - This company has been making some big aquisitions of late, and I think it could become another big airline. The stock was up almost 50% today...if we get a break of the 50-day tomorrow, it could move some more. Nice one-year hold here.

CVGI - This breakout may take some time to develop, but I like the combination breakout of the 200-day MA and the $2 resistance mark. If some volume flows in, we could hit three quickly.

OC - They announced some interesting liscensing news today...this should help the stock at least push itself to the 20-day MA at around 12.50 soon. You can either play the normal shares or dabble with call options depending on your risk tolerance.

LZB - Big move today out of this poor furniture name. Mr. Sykes and crew were on it today, so I'd watch for them to file out soon and take gains. Nice short position should arise tomorrow morning or so. Mr. Sykes never holds for long.

MK