December 9th Review

The overall markets hung in there today and were able to sneak out a nice up-day as the sellers got weak trying to hold down the fort by the end of the day. However, even with today's buying I am still getting the feeling we are slowly rolling over. Now this may not be a total apocalypse, but I think we should slowly pull back to around the 10,100 mark. The dollar weakened a bit today, but it didn't exactly break back down through the $76 mark. We'll have to see if that holds tomorrow because that is an important that we need to establish some support if we want to eventually breakout above the 76.5 mark. If 76 doesn't hold, then hopefully the 50-day MA will at around 75.5.

Oil was crushed yet again today. I really hope you all took me for serious when I was predicting so long ago that oil was in a trading range from $76-80 and it would soon break one way. Well, it broke the channel and the 50-day MA in one fell swoop, and we are reaping in the profits right now. If you played USO options like I suggested, you should be up anywhere from 100-140%. Not bad for a little channel/50-day combo breakdown! Gold struggled again today, but I think tomorrow we are in for a nice bounce back. However, for this to happen we would need the dollar to go lower which is something I don't exactly want to happen. Eh, we'll just have to see...

For more specific stocks, BGP got a nice bump up today as it approached the $1 mark yesterday. Those long really went out of their wait today to make it appear like it is is healthy after the slide. Let's be real...this company is in trouble, but I could see this moving up to around 1.50 tomorrow or by Friday with no problem. Heck, that'd be at least 10%. JTX is also a possible name to watch. We had good volume with nice price action and last time that happened, the stock had a continuation for at least two days. If we got that again, then we would be in the midst of a $5 mark/200-day MA breakout. FBP, a pick from yesterday, broke its 50-day MA nicely today and closed up 17%. Anyone get some? Easy money. Keep watching it because it could be volatile to the downside when it turns around and goes negative for the first time. Buyers will be flushed and on the run.

MK

December 8th Review

Well, rough day for the markets today. The dollar was strong all day and closed up over one half percent. It's been the story, and it will most likely continue to be the story. The Dow finished under 10,300 for the first time in a while, and let's remember the support level in in at the 10,200 area. I wouldn't necessarily be short this market until a break under that. On that same note, the market will most likely go a lot lower if the dollar can break the 76.5 mark to the upside. That's the current resistance. Short covering will be crazy I bet if we break that.

Gold was absolutely hammered again today. I think the gold bulls from about two months ago are finally realizing this may have went too far. With the higher dollar, the short dollar, long gold play may be coming undone before our eyes. As I prefaced in yesterday's post, oil was hit hard again for almost 2 points. Again, I bet this will rest under the $70 mark but above the $66 mark in the months to come. The dollar will continue to strengthen (if it breaks 76.5 at least) and oil will stay trapped in to the price of the dollar.

HOKU had a strong day today on higher than average volume. I think it's going to need at least another strong day before its short worthy, but I bet you could easily trade it for around 10 cents quick tomorrow. FBP is a regional bank on a perennial downtrend, but the last few days have been looking positive. It is sitting right at the 50-day MA right now, so tomorrow's action will be imperative for determining a breakout. I continue to hold my short position in JAG as long as the dollar continues going higher. Gold will only struggle...JAG is down about 7% or since last Friday...nice.

MK

December 7th Review

Interesting day for the markets today, but by the close not much had changed from the open. The Dow finished higher by a whole 1.21 points!!! Amazing, I know. I've always wanted a perfect 0.00 close (no change at all) for the Dow, but I don't think I have ever seen one in the two plus years I have followed the market. Just maybe someday it will happen... On another note, the volume on the major market indices finally subsided a bit and returned to normal. I still wouldn't be surprised if we retrace some soon.

The dollar was all over the place today mostly because of Bernanke and his comments at the Economics Club of Washington today. He said he expects rates to stay low for some time, and that immediately weakened the dollar. Gold was struggling before those comments, but it picked right back up when the dollar went back down on the comments. Gold still closed down some from the close on Friday. Oil officially struggled for the first time under the 50-day MA. Hopefully you are already short this. The move under $75 should have definitely triggered the short play. I think, with the breakdown, oil should slowly trickle down to around the $66-70 area, but not much lower than that.

Looking at some specific names to watch now...NVGN (yes, the same name we shorted around $5 and banked big on the supernova) appears ready for a 50-day MA break. Not sure how this will hold, though, because the volume just isn't there yet. EMMS had another stong day today following up Friday's move...should be a candidate for a quick short trade soon. BIOF retraced for a nice two days to end the week after we made the call to short, but it was back ready to move higher again today. I'm a buyer of this over the 3.75ish area for a trade, but skeptical for the long-term. SNTA (kind of looks like Santa, should be good news just for that reason alone) appears to be on the verge of a breakout over the $5 mark. I'm a buyer through the holiday season!

MK

Weekend Update

So before we go too far, let's take a look at the chart. As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words...

Well, we continue to trade in this range of around 10,200-10,300ish to 10,500. It's been almost three weeks now, and this is starting to feel a little long without going much higher. I know its stupid to try and call bottoms or call tops, but I want to just say one thing. And that is, have a look at the volume the past two days. It's been absolutely crazy! I don't know the reason for this, but it makes me skeptical. Typically, when a top or bottom is about to be put in, volume surges as a lot of people are getting out and selling their shares to non-knowing people. I just want to watch this very closely. So if the market starts to tank here soon, don't say I didn't warn you.

Heading to the commodities...oil went for a bit of slide on Friday due to the incredible strength of the dollar. It's now just under the 50-day MA, so this could be interesting. However, I did read an article saying how OPEC is liking the current prices. So that could also be something to watch. As I said, the dollar index broke its 50-day MA on Friday, so we'll have to watch this really closely as well. Nat gas got a nice bounce off the 4.50 area that I said to watch...keep watching it if you are looking for a quick trade. Gold had a crisis finally on Friday with the dollar's strength. Everything's starting to get shaky here when the dollar starts moving in big ways. Let's keep an eye on all this for sure.

BIG had some good news on Friday and that caused a nice pop. During this holiday season, I think people are going to continue to look for bargains, and I assume a discount retailer like Big Lots will profit nicely. Watch for a solid breakout over $28 throughout the week. OCLS had a nice last two days, but its been struggling a bit trying to overcome these moving averages. It might be two and done here, but we'll have to wait and see tomorrow. MTG has got some nice momentum, but the down trending 50-day MA is approaching quickly. If it can break, it might be worth a buy, but otherwise, eh pass. On the gold trade, if it continues to tank or even just have a rough time, look to short some small gold plays. One I'm interested in is JAG.

And now, here's the weekend song. I figured we needed one for the females that read this blog every once in a while.

The Market Kid

December 3rd Review

Today was quite an interesting day for the market...we opened strongly and were gliding higher quickly, but we got an immediate reverse rather quickly and cam back down to settle about even. We lingered there for almost the entire day until right at the very end. It was just like at the start except that we went negative just as fast as we went positive at the start of the day. The rumor is that tomorrow's unemployment number might have been leaked, and people are expecting something not good. I guess we'll just have to see when it comes down to it tomorrow.

The dollar held strong again for a second straight day and we saw the result in the commodities area. Oil struggled and ended up closing down a bit, but still generally right there at the 50-day MA. I have a feeling we are going to need some positive movement out of it tomorrow or we could lose it off this mini support cliff. The GLD took a nice rest today, and I'm not complaining...this has been a crazy run. Nat gas, something I haven't mentioned in a while it in the closing stages of a spike. It is now settling back down around 4.50. If it breaks that to the downside, that would be a nice short...watch it.

CCRT bounced yesterday nicely, but I left it off the list to see what would happen today. Today was interesting to say the least, but the main jest is that we went even higher and in a big way. We are now up about 60% or so off the lows, so this is definitely a spot to watch for a potential short play to come in a negative move. A bigger name for you all...AMD just keeps on chugging higher. Today was fantastic and there was also great volume. Buying a dip soon maybe? And long with AMD...another semiconductor, RMBS is breaking out to new highs right now. I'm a buyer, it looks like the sector is one the move. USD (the proshare for semis) is looking like its ready for a 30 mark breakout. I'm a buyer there too. Options with that might help increase gains...

MK

December 2nd Review

So here's the question to ask yourself...how did the dollar do today? The answer...well, it closed up moderately by about one third of a percent. Now, knowing that, let me tell you what all happened today...

The market was sold off moderately too, oil struggled, and nat gas struggled as well. That is all to be expected with the higher dollar, but there did happen to be one surprise today. That surprise was that gold still manged to forge higher. Not sure how it happened, but with that happening, my eyes are starting to be opened to a possible bubble forming here in gold. There should be some sort of direct relation here, but I'm just not seeing it. It was a tale of two stories today.

Big day for GRH today, but I not really seeing any pressing news. This seems a bit weird and there very well might be some more news to come considering the high volume as well today. You might to try and reserve some shares tomorrow morning maybe. STEM has had a history of these violent spikes, and today we got another. You know the drill...be ready to short this sucker to oblivion on any negative move, but it probably might not come tomorrow. BIOF...holy-moley...I think we got a supernova forming here. Nothing today but straight buying on even higher volume. Just keep sitting tight...I wouldn't look to jump to try and follow this now. GERN...nice day from this stock today, but it didn't quite make it over a pair of down-trending moving averages. If it can do that, I'd be looking to buy this move for sure for a quick trade.

MK