Weekend Update

Okay, so let's start off the new week with an updated chart...here's what I got:

As you can see, I am going to keep that 50-day MA as solid support. We have used it already twice before, so I can't imagine we would not at least test it another few times. At the current time, however, the nearest support on the Dow is 10,200. We must break that before we will ever have a chance to test the 50-day MA support. I've also drawn on a sort of of trading channel (light black). That might just be something to keep an eye on if we would ever get close to it, but I doubt that will happen for at least several days.

Also, do not forget that this week is a short week for the markets. We have Thursday off obviously for Thanksgiving, but Friday is also a short day so traders head to their families for the weekend if they would like.

The commodity plays are all looking rather interesting for tomorrow and the week ahead. Oil has had a rough past two days, and it is currently at the bottom of its trading range. I'd be ready to buy this around here and wait for a nice bounce back soon. If anything, you can just put a stop out around the $76 mark and if it breaks that then it will close out. Gold appears that it is wanting to move higher soon...watch GLD over 113 or so. The dollar is a busy trade right now and I think a lot of people are packed in it. We could get a squeeze if we breakout above the 50-day MA at 76 soon. Watch it. But still remember that this will go lower over the longer-term with all of the government spending....it's crazy.

Now to look at some more specific picks for the week ahead, here's some tickers I think will be important to keep an eye on. For starters, NLST. How could be we go to anything else? This stock just won't give up. It's back flying high and actually broke out to new highs, I guess. I still believe that if you would short right now, you could make out big a few months from now. GGR had a heck of a Friday, but I think that is only going to lend itself to being open for a short play soon. TTIL came out of nowhere on Thursday and Friday with both a big move in volume and price. Wait for green to red and you should be able to bank nicely as long as you got shares reserved to short.

Alright, and the last thing for tonite is the new music for the week. Here's a little something new and for the young at heart I suppose...

The Market Kid

November 19th Review

The major market indices looked like they were going to take a dive yesterday for most of the day, but some buyers came in late and saved the day. Today, there were just no buyers to keep this market in check. The dollar was on the rise from the beginning and that led to a poor open. Hand in hand with the poor overall market was gold and oil. Both obviously suffered as well.

Tonite's post is going to be a short one, it looks like. I've fit about normally two paragraphs worth of stuff into one small paragraph. So let's just move on. Some picks to watch for tomorrow are: GSL had a nice second day move today. It's touched its 50-day MA and back off a bit. I think that could be a cause for concern if you think this stock will continue higher. Personally, I'm watching for a little green to red action to possibly short into. NLST is "getting up there" again, so if you missed your first chance to short, you might very well get another chance soon.

PSDV is a stock I think I have mentioned before, but the setup right now is almost mouthwatering. Okay, maybe it's not that great, but I'm liking it. We just broke out over the 50-day MA today, and I'm seeing this $4 mark as a nice pivot point. I just think there's some potential to go much higher with a breakout over that mark. Speaking of 50-day MA breakouts, SMRT is getting close to one. Just keep an eye on it for now, the odds aren't great anything happens to soon.

MK

November 18th Review

Today we had a lucky close for the Dow, so things are looking up. What's considered a lucky close you ask? Well, the Dow finished down 11.11 points. Yeah, I know, that means I'm a pretty superstitious kind of person. Granted, it wasn't the luckiest of closes...that would have been a finish in the green by 11.11 points. But either way, I'm looking forward to the end of the week. Today was another day when we traded down for most of the day, but we ended up having some intense buying pressure at the end of the day. If this continues, it's going to be hard to breakdown this market.

Oil made a quick dash at the tops of its current trading range today with a high at 80.88. However, it came back to close around 80 even by the end of the day. Until it breaks $81 a barrel, I just don't think it can really go much higher. Traders just seem to like it in this current range. The dollar struggled a bit again today, but nothing too big. Gold was reaching new highs again, and I kind of expect this to continue for awhile. It's become the hot thing right now.

Looking ahead to some specific picks...LZB announced some better than expected earnings this morning before the bell, and that really helped propel this stock to a nice day. It broke some MA's, so I'd keep an eye on this going forward. NLST had a bit of a bounce back day, but over time this should tend to trail down. Even if it takes months, I bet you could easily get a 50% gain if you short now and just have the guts to wait it out. CGA had a nice breakout today...it's a combo Chinese/Ag. play, so watch out! This could easily trade around $30 a share in a year or two if commodities continue to be strong. It's a solid momentum play that people tend to just continue to jump on no matter what the fundamentals are.

MK

November 17th Review

So the market closed up today by about 40ish points, but it took a rough battle to get there. The market was down throughout the morning, and it looked as if we would get a nice pullback today. However, that was not the case, and traders seem to go against the higher dollar and continue to bid this market higher. Oil and gold both also bucked the trend and went against the higher dollar today. It's something I haven't seen in awhile, but in no means do I think it will stay like this for long. We will surely go back to the dollar dominated market soon, I guarantee it.

For the actual stock picks, today was huge. If any of you missed the NLST play today, then I think you really aren't that worried about trading stocks and making good returns. This was just so easy that there is no excuse for not banking a large amount on this play. The first trigger should have been the negative/gap-down open. After that happens, then you just look for big numbers ($5, 5.50, 4.75, etc.) to set your order at and wait for it to trigger. Easy as pie if you ask me. If you happened to miss this today, there is a good possibility you could still bank some money again tomorrow because this was just that good of a setup.

Picks for tomorrow include: PXLW...this one has had a nice last three days that have left it much higher. The stock is approaching some even number resistance at $3 and also 50-day MA resistance at 3.25. Between this two things, I think this stock will get a nice turnaround soon, so be ready to short on any green to red action. SALM had a super breakout to new highs today, but we should get a small pull back soon. If this breaks the $5 mark, I wouldn't touch it, but if not, I would watch for a possible entry to short this. ALKS got a nice upgrade today...I'd love to buy this over the 200-day MA on the continuation play.

MK

November 16th Review

If you would have told me before the markets opened that the US dollar index would close down 1/2% today, I could have easily told you that the major indices would close up at least that amount if not more. It's just been a fact of life lately. When the dollar index sells off, then the overall market tends to head higher around double the amount the dollar index went down. Plus, $USD pretty much broke right through the 75 mark today, so it could only get worse from here. If the dollar is worth less, then a company's assets are going to be worth more, and thus the stock should be valued higher. It's just a simple self-fulfilling prophecy.

Much in the same way as the overall market, gold trades almost identical to the market when the dollar collapses. Fear of inflation is going to have people running to gold all of the time. GLD broke out over the 110 mark today, so it should just continue to move higher. There's just really not an end to this death spiral it seems. Eventually the dollar will stake a turnaround and the market will be in for a rude awakening. Oil held in its trading range today and quickly awoke back up. Still waiting for that channel breakout below/above 76/81.

NLST was the only pick from yesterday and obviously if you followed it today you saw the result. It just went higher, yes, higher. I didn't think it was possible either, but it sure did. Just keep waiting for that first moment it starts to tremble. Under the $6 mark is probably a good place to watch. MCBC is a regional bank that got a good move today, and the volume was also there. It appears to have closed right around the 50-day MA, so that could be some resistance tomorrow. Be ready to short this sucker on green to red. SWC underwent a nice breakout today, and it is trading around $9 right now. I think over time, with the higher metal prices in general, this should slowly trend up to the $10 mark.

MK

Weekend Update

Alright, so after Thursday's nice pullback that I was indeed looking for, the market did in fact pop back up and close nicely on Friday. As a follower, I have learned that you just can't expect the market, or any individual stock, to keep rising forever. Even if the fundamentals look good and it should continue to move higher, it will inevitably need some sort of consolidation. We saw a perfect example of that this week in the major indices. I don't have time to put up a weekly chart tonite, but it's pretty self-explanatory. We are breaking out yet again, and its awfully similar to the past 5-6 breakouts we have had over the last 5 months.

Oil seems to be wanting to breakdown under the $76 mark soon, but I really doubt that will happen. Even if it does, the rising 50-day MA support is sitting right at $74, so it wouldn't go far. I think there is a lot better chance of this going higher over the next few months than lower. Nat gas continues to trail off to nowhere, but gold is still available for a trade. GLD is preparing for a 110 breakout pretty soon, so if the dollar index starts to go negative, a 110 breakout is almost easy money. ($USD under the 75 mark would be the signal to watch for.)

I'm sure there are multiple plays out there to watch, but tonite I feel like focusing on just one. That one particular stock would be NLST. I know I mentioned before during last week's picks, but now it has set itself up so, so nicely. Essentially, the stock has moved from $1 to around $4.50 in just three days. I believe I was looking for a short under the $2 mark on Friday, but that obviously didn't happen. So here's the deal, I'm still looking to go short, but I now know that I've got to be super careful. This is a super squeeze candidate. Tomorrow it's time to reserve shares and wait for some negativity. If we get a move to the red side, I feel this stock could crumple fast. Therefore, anything under 4.25 is a good place to pile on short. If you go short around there, but the stock still bounces back to above 4.50, then I would just cover and get out with the small loss. It's just not worth it trying to hang in there.

Here's your music for the weekend...enjoy!

MK